The SMU Mustangs take to the road as they kick off the 2020 season against the Texas State Bobcats on Saturday. The Mustangs, who finished third in the American Athletic Conference West Division at 6-2, were 10-3 overall in 2019. Texas State, which was 2-6 and finished fourth in the Sun Belt West Division, was 3-9 overall a year ago. SMU was 4-3 on the road, while Texas State was 3-3 at home.
Kickoff from Bobcat Stadium is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. SMU ranked ninth in the nation in total offense last season at 489.8 yards per game, while Texas State averaged 317.8 total yards. The Mustangs are 22.5-point favorites in the latest SMU vs. Texas State odds from William Hill, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 69. Before making any Texas State vs. SMU picks, be sure to see the college football predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past four years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of over $3,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also went a sizzling 8-2 on all picks against the spread during Championship Week last season. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- SMU vs. Texas State spread: SMU -22.5
- SMU vs. Texas State over-under: 69 points
- SMU vs. Texas State money line: SMU -1800, Texas State +1000
- SMU: QB Shane Buechele started all 13 games in 2019 and completed 62.7 percent of his passes
- TSU: Scored 37 points off turnovers in 2019
Why SMU can cover
The Mustangs have an experienced quarterback in Buechele, who was one of the top passers in the AAC a year ago. He completed 307-of-490 passes for 3,929 yards and a conference-leading 34 touchdowns. His 302.2 passing yards per game and points responsible for (222), also led the conference. Buechele is on a number of watch lists, including Maxwell Award, Davey O’Brien Award, Manning Award and Wuerffel Trophy.
Also back is running back TJ McDaniel, who played in 11 games as a freshman last season, finishing third on the team with 236 yards rushing on 41 attempts. McDaniel had a big game against the Bobcats a year ago, rushing for 159 yards on eight carries and scoring three touchdowns. That performance made him the first person to rush for 150-plus yards and have three or more rushing TDs in his SMU debut. He also caught three passes for 31 yards against Texas State.
Why Texas State can cover
Texas State will turn to dual-threat quarterback Brady McBride, a transfer from Memphis who sat out all of last season. McBride played in three games for Memphis in 2018, throwing for 88 yards on 8-of-14 passing with one interception. In high school, McBride was a three-year starter, compiling a 27-10 record and leading his team to three playoff appearances. He completed 501-of-823 passes for 6,516 yards, 86 touchdowns with just 14 interceptions. McBride also rushed for 1,142 yards and 21 TDs.
Another returning weapon is senior Caleb Twyford. After leading the Bobcats in rushing as a running back in 2019, he is switching to wide receiver. In 11 games, including seven as a starter, he carried 108 times for 488 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught 27 passes for 145 yards and a TD. Twyford had the team’s longest run of the season, a 60-yard gain against Arkansas State. He had a season-best 137 yards rushing on 27 attempts against Georgia State.
How to make SMU vs. Texas State picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total. In fact, it says Buechele will throw for two touchdowns, while Texas State’s top four ball carriers will combine to rush for just 65 yards. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in almost 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins SMU vs. Texas State? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas State vs. SMU spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $3,500 on its top-rated college football spread picks, and find out.