عالمية عالمية

Everton’s Double Dichotomy

Opinion

Jay Wood analyses the seeming contradictions of Everton’s record against the Sky 6 and the rest of the Premier League, and their perplexing home form contrasted with their impressive results away from home in this topsy turvy season.

I said after the 3-2 away win at Fulham, based on the two very different halves of football Everton displayed that day, that we couldn’t yet trust this team.

Brilliant fast-flowing football in the first half in which Fulham was lucky it was only 3-1 to the Blues at half-time. Dire backs-to-the-wall football which saw us defending deep for the second half, just getting over the line 3-2

The schizophrenia continues… on two fronts:

  • First, there is the obvious discrepancy of our excellent away form to our stuttering home form.

  • Then there is another discrepancy between our results against the better teams contrasted to those in the lower reaches of the league.

Now the following analysis is based on games before we play Man City and Liverpool in the coming days, but in all fixtures played between the Sky 6 (Man City, Man Utd,

Chelsea, Spurs, Arsenal and Liverpool) and ourselves, our results and points return are impressive:

Home and Away for Everton the Sky 6 when playing each other:

HOME

AWAY

TOTAL

TOTAL

TOTAL

 

 

 

P

W

D

L

F

A

H PTS

W

D

L

F

A

A PTS

F

A

GD

PTS

 

AV PTS PG

* PREDICTION

8

2

1

1

6

6

7

2

2

0

8

4

8

14

10

4

15

Liverpool

1.88

22.50

7

2

1

0

5

1

7

2

1

1

7

4

7

12

5

7

14

Man City

2.00

24.00

6

2

1

1

6

6

7

1

1

0

4

3

4

10

9

1

11

Everton

1.83

22.00

9

2

0

3

5

5

6

1

1

2

7

6

4

12

11

1

10

Spurs

1.11

13.33

8

0

3

2

4

10

3

1

2

0

3

1

5

7

11

-4

8

Man Utd

1.00

12.00

7

1

1

0

3

1

4

1

 

4

3

8

3

6

9

-3

7

Arsenal

1.00

12.00

7

0

1

2

1

5

1

1

1

2

2

4

4

3

9

-6

5

Chelsea

0.71

8.57

* Prediction for entire season calculated on 12 games x current average per game

We are currently 3rd in that table behind only Liverpool and City. We also have a much healthier points per game average against the other six clubs than all but those two clubs. City are averaging 2 points a game in these select fixtures. Liverpool 1.88 and Everton 1.83. The next best is Spurs on a greatly inferior 1.11. Chelsea sits bottom of this table with a paltry 5 points from a possible 21, averaging just 0.71 points a game.

On this front, currently all good.

Out of curiosity, I ran the results of the same seven ‘top’ clubs against the seven teams currently occupying the bottom seven places. Those seven clubs are Palace, Brighton, Burnley, Newcastle, Fulham, WBA and Sheffield United.

Again, the results are revealing. It won’t come as a surprise that we don’t compare well. BUT! We aren’t even bottom of that select results table. That ‘honour’ falls to Liverpool! This includes Chelsea’s 2-0 win over Newcastle on Monday.

Home and Away for Everton the Sky 6 when playing the bottom 7:

HOME

AWAY

TOTAL

TOTAL

TOTAL

 

 

 

P

W

D

L

F

A

H PTS

W

D

L

F

A

A PTS

F

A

GD

PTS

 

AV PTS PG

PREDICTION

9

6

1

0

16

1

19

2

0

0

6

0

6

22

1

21

25

City

2.78

33.33

8

2

0

0

8

1

6

5

1

0

14

5

16

22

6

16

22

Chelsea

2.75

33.00

9

1

0

2

3

5

3

5

1

0

14

7

16

17

12

5

19

Man Utd

2.11

25.33

8

2

1

0

3

1

7

3

1

1

6

3

10

9

4

5

17

Spurs

2.13

25.50

7

2

1

1

5

2

7

3

0

0

8

0

9

13

2

11

16

Arsenal

2.29

27.43

9

2

0

2

9

8

6

3

1

1

8

6

10

17

14

3

16

Everton

1.78

21.33

8

1

1

2

3

4

4

1

3

0

9

2

6

12

6

6

10

Liverpool

1.25

15.00

As you can see, all but two clubs are averaging more than 2 points a game versus the bottom seven clubs, the two Merseyside clubs. City, as you would expect, are the most ruthless, as are Chelsea. United are very impressive against this type of opposition on the road, but like Everton has tripped up at home (losses to Palace and Sheffield United at Old Trafford). Liverpool, other than the complete outriding 7-0 away win to Palace, are really struggling to get results against these teams, with the two recent loses to Brighton and Burnley at home indicative of this.

The second mini-league table highlights just how much our results against the lesser teams are hurting us. If, for example, we had taken the bare minimum, a draw, a point, from five losing games we reasonably expected to take something from – away to Newcastle, home to Leeds, WHU, Newcastle again and Fulham – we would now be sat on 42 points, equal with Chelsea and WHU with two games in hand on both.

I doubt this analysis will offer much succour to the deep frustration many feel about Everton’s many missed opportunities to cement a higher league position than we have attained. But it does reveal a strange dichotomy to Everton’s results this season. Good results and points return v better teams. Poor results and points return v lesser teams. Home form v away form.

Add it to the list of ‘Everton that’.

Note: the following content is not moderated or vetted by the site owners at the time of submission. Comments are the responsibility of the poster. Disclaimer

Editorial Team

 Posted
16/02/2021 at
20:34:50

Nice piece of numbers work, Jay… although I’m not sure I’m any the wiser on the great mysteries of this season, such as: Why are we so godamn awful at home?

 Posted
16/02/2021 at
20:50:59

Interesting picture on the other Sky 6 clubs with their record at home to the bottom 7.

 Posted
16/02/2021 at
20:55:58

Thanks for taking the time Jay.

An eye opening article

 Posted
16/02/2021 at
21:02:46

Interesting article Jay. Worryingly, is it simply our results away and against top six have been unexpected and out the norm. If that’s the case we’re in for a shocking second half of the season.

My own view is that still a mentality issue with the squad / club but that if we keep with Carlo this will change and I think next season we will stop dropping points in these “easier” games and continue our good form against the “better” teams. Time will tell.

 Posted
16/02/2021 at
21:17:31

I think we have the same problem as Man Utd. Our manager is adept at making tactical moves to tackle top opponents. But against the “lesser” opponents when we should just “go out an play,” we don’t. No one takes the bulls by the horn. Is it arrogance? laziness? I don’t know.

 Posted
16/02/2021 at
21:19:49

Without being too disrespectful you are doing the middle management thing of listing symptoms almost as though a solution. They never are.

As ever identification of answers is relatively straight forward it applies to us as it does every other middling non-entity outfit.

1. Get better players
2. Ensure said players give 100%

We have mid table players, bar Digne and James, and as a collective they hardly ever play at 100% hence our continued anchorage in the doldrums and the reason CA isn’t being roasted alive over it is his CV.

The contention is a manager of his lineage MUST have the answer hidden in his waistcoat pocket and with time all will be revealed in as stunning a manner as the “Nelson touch” at Trafalgar.

Maybe, maybe not. Just keep a wary eye out for snipers Carlo.

 Posted
16/02/2021 at
22:09:15

Thanks for formatting the tables Michael.

Only this morning, after submitting the piece last night, did I notice one error. Not a crucial one.

In the second table – results v the bottom 7 – the Predicted final points tally (which of course are just that – a prediction) were calculated in the spreadsheet by 12 x each team’s current average points per game. It should be x 14, rather than x 12.

This elevates the predicted points tally for each team v the bottom 7 to:

Man City – 38.89
Chelsea – 38.89
Man Utd – 29.56
Spurs – 29.75
Arsenal – 32.00
Everton – 24.89
Liverpool 17.50

The numbers highlight the importance of dispatching lower placed teams to ensure a healthy points total come the end of the season.

 Posted
16/02/2021 at
22:21:56

Good article, Jay. It is a strange business indeed. What seems the obvious answer i.e, lesser teams defend deep, invite us to break them down and we can’t because we haven’t yet got the quality, just isn’t the case. Lesser teams play us off the park.
We still play with fear and I believe some players cope better with fear when it appears justified. It wasn’t against Fulham and confidence ebbed away.
We talk about gradually strengthening and adding quality to the squad. What also needs grown and nurtured is the collective back bone of this group of players. An atmosphere where a dropped head or negative body language is unacceptable. Where defeat is an utter affront.
By now Carlo must know which players have that in them. Truly great players are never luxury players but many a level or two below are. We need a change in mentality.
I believe that zombie football is actually fearful football and fear has been our default position for many, many years.

 Posted
16/02/2021 at
22:23:33

Barry @ 6. This.

‘Without being too disrespectful you are doing the middle management thing of listing symptoms almost as though a solution. They never are.’

In Brazil, they play a short clip of a famous TV presenter when showing highlights of a player missing a sitter, or making some cock-up. Your comment merits a viewing.

ERROR!!!

Not even knowing what the hell your statement refers to, I’ve simply put up the numbers and made absolutely no analysis or speculation on them.

I’ve left it to each reader to reach their own conclusions. Or ignore the data totally, as is their invidivual inclination.

 Posted
16/02/2021 at
22:32:47

Basically the weaker teams beat stronger teams by being weak in possession but good on the counter. Unless you are city and you have a style of play that never changes irrespective of who you play.

What happened on Sunday we were poor at countering & possession.

Strange times.

 Posted
16/02/2021 at
22:34:24

Andy @ 8.

‘What seems the obvious answer i.e, lesser teams defend deep, invite us to break them down and we can’t because we haven’t yet got the quality, just isn’t the case. Lesser teams play us off the park.’

Exactly, Andy. Both Newcastle and Andy absolutely played us off the park. Nothing fluky about their wins at all. They fully merited it.

This very season – in the last ten days! – we have dug deep and got results away to United and home to Spurs. The results at Leicester, Wolves and Leeds – 3 wins we fully merited – show just how focused, disciplined and determined the team can be.

The win at Sheffield United, a dangerous wounded animal, on the worst day of the season weather worse, is another good reference point that these players, this team, are more than capable of overcoming obdurate opposition in trying conditions.

Yet still, occasionally, we see such abject performances as against Newcastle and Fulham.

The double dichotomy, as the title says.

 Posted
16/02/2021 at
22:51:00

Jay

It’s almost odd you refute providing analysis when you wrote this:

“Now the following analysis is based on games before we play Man City and Liverpool in the coming days”

“I doubt this analysis will offer much succour to the deep frustration many feel about Everton’s many missed opportunities”

I say “almost” because you do have previous with comprehension issues nontheless if your piece was cobbled together to simply say

” Good results and points return v better teams. Poor results and points return v lesser teams. Home form v away form.
Add it to the list of ‘Everton that’.”

What on earth was the point of all the number crunching to conclude what every man and his dog knows.

Smacks to me of a civil servant living in the back of beyond with too much time on his hands.

But if it keeps you happy

 Posted
16/02/2021 at
23:08:28

Semantics, Barry. You’re good at that, rather than ever making a genuine comprehensible or telling point. That and pouting.

Analysis. Data compilation. Call it what you like.

What I don’t do, as you charged in your original post, is offer any deep conclusions or speculation, cause and effect, whatever, as to the evident dichotomy we are all aware of about Everton and our results.

I repeat, I leave it to each individual to reach their own conclusions, or ignore the data altogether. Not fussed either way.

What my ‘number crunching’ may inform others of is how the top clubs we are trying to emulate are performing against the same opposition at both ends of the table.

Something not all Blues primarily concerned with Everton’s results and performances may be aware of.

Good of you to sacrifice so much of your own precious time to snipe at something you don’t have time for.

But if it keeps you happy, ‘n all that…

 Posted
17/02/2021 at
02:21:31

Being overly complacent when playing ‘lesser’ rivals isn’t exactly unheard of, and that makes things more annoying if it is some mental block that apparently limits the majority of our players in these games because you would expect ultra wealthy football clubs to have come up with a decent solution by now.
Perhaps players are generally less naturally competitive these days if the academies shy away from the overly zealous and cherry pick only the technically gifted??? Perhaps Everton are particularly poor at identifying those players with whatever particular ‘x factor’ makes players into crushers of the underdogs as much as the highly rated?
The occasional slow start to a game I could accept, but oft repeated examples of us failing to get out of second gear against sides we are expected to beat is extremely difficult to live with.

About these ads



© ToffeeWeb

الوسوم
اظهر المزيد

اترك تعليقاً

لن يتم نشر عنوان بريدك الإلكتروني. الحقول الإلزامية مشار إليها بـ *

زر الذهاب إلى الأعلى
إغلاق

أنت تستخدم إضافة Adblock

برجاء دعمنا عن طريق تعطيل إضافة Adblock